World issues

U.S. Pork Exports Are Setting Up for a Tough Time in 2009 but Cross Your Fingers

     We are facing the first year-over-year decline in net exports since the U.S. industry became a net exporter in the mid 1990s.  Even with the potential prospect of fewer total pigs slaughtered in the U.S. in 2009, due to a potential decline in both U.S. production and imports of weaned pigs and finished animals from Canada, 2009 seems to be setting up to be a very tough year.  Here are the reasons for caution and why the spring futures prices may fall to meet the slogging cash prices.

     First, we now know that all of the major countries which are key importers of U.S. pork are facing substantial declines in GDP, declining land and home values, increased unemployment and in one case, the potential descent into political chaos. 

2009 and Beyond Part II

     Worldwide demand for natural resouces, value-added food items and consumer goods is down sharply as a dramatic slowdown of the world's largest economies continues.  The contraction phase of this worldwide recession is still underway at the beginning of 2009 and will likely continue well into at least the first quarter. 

     One of the reasons it is hard to predict when the recession will bottom out is that there are most likely still "land-mines" of hidden corruption yet to be exposed and absorbed as losses by the remaining productive sectors.  These losses occur in business processes and supply chains that are linked, so that a kind of domino effect or snowballing contraction must take place before the full impact of each phase of the slowdown is fully realized.  This takes time and tends to come in waves, as tipping points are finally breeched.

2009 and Beyond: The New Strategic Environment, Part 1

     Sometimes its hard to tell if recent events, like the generalized global economic meltdown, cast a shadow that is a vapor and will burn off as the sun comes out again, or whether they are a harbinger of a more persistent, new strategic environment in the global market and political system.

     There is certainly a feeling in the air that some substantial things have changed but time will tell if they are persistent or even fully realized.  Some of the things which form the emerging global situation that U.S. agricultural will operate in include:

SwineCast 0360 for December 2 2008

SwineCast 0360 Show Notes:

  • Canadian correspondent Bruce Cochrane shares this news conference on action by Canada to bring the U.S. Country of Origin Labeling law before the World Trade Organization.

Swine Forecast 2009: Dr. Steven McOrist and on-site production experience in China

Dr. Steven McOrist at the University of Nottingham, with 24 years of comprehensive high-level participation and experience in production animal industries, draws on his on-site production experience in China and recent travels.

Swine Forecast 2009: Karol Aure-Flynn and agribusiness experience in the Western US

arol Aure-Flynn of Rabobank International shares years of agribusiness experience in the Western US. Responsible for covering issues in the US grains and oilseed complex, and discussing today US and International financing.

SwineCast 0359e for November 27 2008

SwineCast 0359e Show Notes:

SwineCast 0359c for November 27 2008

SwineCast 0359c Show Notes:

SwineCast 0354 for November 7 2008

SwineCast 0354 Show Notes:

  • Special post-election insight on new administration's transition and impact on agriculture  

Best of SwineCast 2008: Leman Conference, part 3

This is part 3 of a 3 part Best of SwineCast series from the 2008 Leman Conference.

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Best of SwineCast: Leman Conference, part 3.

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