I've heard stated more than once over the past several weeks that producers who can survive the current market conditions for the next 12-18 months will see a welcome return to profitability. The pervasiveness of that attitude has led to what might be called a high-stakes game of "chicken" with no one, or very few, willing at this point to give up or reduce production, although there have been a couple of high-profile (and some unannounced) intentions to cut sow herds by "5%". Well, since the first 5% has to happen before the next 10% can, this may be a good beginning, but don't fool yourself into thinking that the 5% reduction in the sow herd will translate into a 5% drop in supply in the next 6-8 months. First, USDA reported an increase in pigs weaned per litter for Dec-Feb at 9.21 compared to 9.09 for the same quarter last year - a 1.3% increase. Factor in a gain in litters per sow per year (for the first time ever, 50% of the sow herd farrowed a litter in between quarterly reports - slightly over 3 million litters). Then go back and analyze your own sow productivity records. You will find that a high percentage of sows (the old 80/20 rule will get you in the ballpark here) go through life producing 2.5-2.6 litters per sow per year with little fuss and few problems. So who pulls the herd average down? The other 15-20%. Who is going to get culled first? The bottom 5%. What is going to happen to overall sow herd productivity on a per sow basis? You got it, it's going up. So the 5% decrease in the sow herd might translate into a 2-3% reduction in pig numbers weaned. But wait - with fewer but more productive sows to go into farrowing crates, what will happen next? Wean age will go up, pig quality will increase, and a better pig will go into wean-to-finish barns. So far, I don't see much of a reduction in pork supply any time soon.
