When you consider price movements in hogs, there are at least three regular patterns of price movements that are happening simultaneously and their interaction sometimes gives us an unusual outcome. The three patterns are the seaonal, cyclical and trend patterns in prices that work together to nudge prices around a fairly predictable grand cycle though levels of prices, rather than their patterns of rise and fall are of course harder to predict. I generally believe there are too many variables with too much variance to adequately provide a price forecast beyond a few weeks. Since we live in the age of random shocks, all it takes is something like the H1N1 situation on top of a global recession to make price forecasting the terrible task that it always is. There is a saying that price forecasters should know that seems especially appropriate and that is..."If you must forecast, forecast often."
