Pork Exports

SwineCast 0672 Show Notes:

• Three big wins under the National Pork Producers Council belt with recent movement on major Free Trade Agreements... But wait, there's more!    Vice President and Council for International Affairs, Nick Giordano says the addition of Japan to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations should mean more good new for U.S. producers.
• Overview of the Trans-Pacific Partnership

SwineCast 0631 Show Notes:

• Worldwide population trends and how animal agriculture will respond was the topic at the recent National Institute of Animal Agriculture annual conference titled "Meeting Growing Producer Demands With Integrity."  Dr. Douglas Southgate, Jr., Professor of Agricultural, Environmental, and Developmental Economics, The Ohio State University, looks at both population and changing demographics in his presentation.

SwineCast 0603 Show Notes:

• While it may not happen as quickly as hoped, NPPC Vice President and Counsel for International Affairs, Nick Giordano, fully expects a Korean free trade deal and outlines its importance to the U.S. agricultural industry.

SwineCast 0568 Show Notes:

• Director of International Trade Policy, Sanitary and Technical Issues at the National Pork Producers Council, Laurie Hueneke, discusses the nuts and bolts of keeping our export markets open and producer responsibility.

SwineCast 0526 Show Notes:

• Iowa State's Dr. Dermotte Hayes provided an excellent economic overview of the potential of the Chinese market for North American producers with an interesting, though perhaps not politically feasible, perspective on why China should stop building their domestic swine industry.

SwineCast 0418 Show Notes:

• Steve Meyer's CME Daily Livestock Report pencils in some numbers on cost of H1N1 to producers
• U.S. Meat Export Federation CEO Phil Seng shares on fallout and possible recovery period for flu residue in international markets

SwineCast 0409 Show Notes:

• Continuing the conversation with NPPC's Nick Giordano on recent international trade wins for U.S. producers and the importance of representation and grassroots support in Washington

SwineCast 0408 Show Notes:

• NPPC's Nick Giordano reviews major industry issues in the trade arena and the administration changeover in Washington

If you think about it, each dollar of expected pork revenue, as we look at 2009, has a variance around it. That is to say, not every lb of forecasted sales has the same likelihood of being realized. It is safe to say that the anticipated level of demand from domestic consumption is well known and relatively low variance. The demand which originates from the export markets is highly variable and can come from surprising places. Because of this, there is no doubt that the expected income variance is much higher for export sales than it is for domestic purchases and as you might suspect, it has a higher expected value. Those two attributes tend to go together.

     The total demand for US Pork can be conveniently broken down into two components: domestic demand plus net exports.  Net exports is the excess of exports over imports of pork for the US.  We seem to know that US production of pork will be falling in 2009.  I say seem to know since this is based on projections by USDA (Hogs and Pigs Report).  What we do not know is if the projections are correct (what is their error variance) and what will happen to productivity increases to offset this decline in farrowing intentions from last fall.  We can surmise that the sows leaving the industry are the poorest performing ones (least productive) and that productivity gains from the remaining farms is likely to rise.