The total demand for US Pork can be conveniently broken down into two components: domestic demand plus net exports. Net exports is the excess of exports over imports of pork for the US. We seem to know that US production of pork will be falling in 2009. I say seem to know since this is based on projections by USDA (Hogs and Pigs Report). What we do not know is if the projections are correct (what is their error variance) and what will happen to productivity increases to offset this decline in farrowing intentions from last fall. We can surmise that the sows leaving the industry are the poorest performing ones (least productive) and that productivity gains from the remaining farms is likely to rise.