rtubbs

The recent college football recruiting season, followed in the last couple of weeks by the NFL draft, caused me to think about the vagaries of recruiting (or drafting) talent, versus training once the recruit has been signed up.  Look at how many top NFL draft picks and first-round picks flop, versus the number of mid- or late-round picks that go on to have solid, if not stellar, careers for evidence that the recruiting/drafting game is not an exact science.

In the recent NFL draft, no University of Alabama player was taken for the first time since 1970.  When a co-worker commented about this to me, I responded that Nick Saban will change that situation because he will recruit top-flight talent - as witnessed by the success Les Miles has had at LSU largely with Saban recruits and the fact that the Alabama had the top-ranked (by the recruiting services at least) signing class this year.  While recruiting prowess is a great start toward producing a top-ranked team, what happens after the recruits are signed is just as, if not more, important.

I've heard stated more than once over the past several weeks that producers who can survive the current market conditions for the next 12-18 months will see a welcome return to profitability.  The pervasiveness of that attitude has led to what might be called a high-stakes game of "chicken" with no one, or very few, willing at this point to give up or reduce production, although there have been a couple of high-profile (and some unannounced) intentions to cut sow herds by "5%".  Well, since the first 5% has to happen before the next 10% can, this may be a good beginning, but don't fool yourself into thinking that the 5% reduction in the sow herd will translate into a 5% drop in supply in the next 6-8 months.  First, USDA reported an increase in pigs weaned per litter for Dec-Feb at 9.21 compared to 9.09 for the same quarter last year - a 1.3% increase.  Factor in a gain in litters per sow per year (for the first time ever, 50% of the sow herd farrowed a litter in between quarterly reports - slightly over 3 million litters).  Then go back and analyze your own sow productivity records.  You will find that a high percentage of sows (the old 80/20 rule will get you in the ballpark here) go through life producing 2.5-2.6 litters per sow per year with little fuss and few problems.  So who pulls the herd average down?  The other 15-20%.  Who is going to get culled first?  The bottom 5%.  What is going to happen to overall sow herd productivity on a per sow basis?  You got it, it's going up.  So the 5% decrease in the sow herd might translate into a 2-3% reduction in pig numbers weaned.  But wait - with fewer but more productive sows to go into farrowing crates, what will happen next?  Wean age will go up, pig quality will increase, and a better pig will go into wean-to-finish barns.  So far, I don't see much of a reduction in pork supply any time soon.

Will Rogers once said, "it's not what we don't know that gets us into trouble, it's what we know that just ain't so!".  Some of the things we "know" in pig production fail the test of time and  turn out to "just not be so".  Unfortunately, we allow some of these things to turn into "sacred cows" - a term drawn from the inviolability of the cow in the Hindu religion and used in reference to a person or thing unreasonably held to be immune from questioning or criticism.  Here is a partial list of some sacred cows that have been exposed as either nonessential or perhaps even detrimental to efficient pig production:  washing sows, clipping needle teeth, creep feeding (necessary, not necessary, depends on age at weaning), fostering pigs to "even-up" litters, re-sorting of pigs in nurseries and finishers, "douching" sows, blanket "farrowing shots" to sows, obsessing over pigs per crate per year, "hot" nurseries, 12-day weaning - just to list a few.  How many "sacred cows" in pig production can you think of that have arisen then passed from the scene in the past 25 years?  Which ones will be next (besides the obvious demise of the gestation stall that has been forced on the industry by activist groups)?  Is tail-docking necessary?  Is it humane?  Does it really prevent tail-biting?  If you think for a bit I bet you'll come up with an interesting list of your own.

Sow farm managers - now is the time to prepare for an annual event known as seasonal infertility.  Contrary to popular belief, seasonal infertility is the result of changing daylength, not summer heat.  Accepting this fact is critical to properly managing seasonal infertility.  Summer heat does, however, compound the seasonal decrease in reproductive performance.  Wild pigs are seasonal breeders, with peak reproductive performance resulting from winter and spring matings with subsequent spring and summer farrowings.  As day length peaks on June 21 (summer solstice) and then begins decreasing, reproductive performance decreases as well.  The phenomenon is compounded by hot summer weather.  Hot weather primarily impacts feed intake and the expression of estrus, especially in gilts.  Many gilts and some sows will either not cycle or will cycle hormonally but have "silent" heats (poor physical expression of estrus).